1. Dynamics of Potato Imports and Exports (2019–2024)
Over the past five years, Azerbaijan’s external potato trade has undergone significant changes. Import volumes have consistently exceeded exports, driven by domestic production shortfalls. In 2019, imports peaked at around 193 thousand tonnes. In 2020, imports totaled 182.7 thousand tonnes worth $49.5 million, a 5.4% drop in volume from 2019. In 2021, imports remained steady at 182.9 thousand tonnes, but the value fell to $44.7 million (−9.7% YoY). Iran was the main supplier in 2021, accounting for 164.5 thousand tonnes (90% of total imports).
In 2022, imports dropped significantly to 159 thousand tonnes, about 13% less than in 2021. This decrease aligned with a good domestic harvest and quality issues with Iranian imports. Exports in 2022 totaled 78.3 thousand tonnes ($35.1 million), down 15.2% YoY.
2023 saw a rebound in imports due to a drop in domestic production. Imports rose to 172.7 thousand tonnes valued at $49.2 million, an 8% volume increase and a 17.7% price increase. Exports declined to 71.2 thousand tonnes ($30.93 million), a 9% drop.
2024 marked a sharp decline in both imports and exports. Imports were 149.2 thousand tonnes ($42.6 million), down 13.6% in volume and 13.3% in value from 2023. Exports fell to 48.3 thousand tonnes ($20.5 million), a 32% YoY decrease.
| Year | Imports (thousand t) | Imports ($ million) | Exports (thousand t) | Exports ($ million) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | ~193 | ~51.8 | 61.8 | 26.8 |
| 2020 | 182.7 | 49.5 | 81.4 | 33.8 |
| 2021 | 182.9 | 44.7 | 92.3 | 40.8 |
| 2022 | ~159 | ~41.8 | 78.3 | 35.1 |
| 2023 | 172.7 | 49.2 | 71.2 | 30.9 |
| 2024 | 149.2 | 42.6 | 48.3 | 20.5 |
Key trading partners: Iran, Russia, Belarus, Pakistan, and Turkey. In 2023, the main suppliers were Russia ($18.9 million), Belarus ($11.6 million), and Iran ($10.1 million). Pakistan ($3 million) and Turkey ($1.7 million) followed.
Exports went almost exclusively to Russia (85–95% share annually).
2. Seasonality and Yield Influence
Seasonal structure:
- Summer to autumn (harvest season): June–September. Azerbaijan exports early varieties, mainly to Russia. Imports minimal.
- Winter to spring (off-season): August–April. Domestic stocks run low; imports from Russia (autumn harvest), Belarus, Iran, and later Pakistan and Turkey fill the gap.
Yield effects:
- Good years (e.g., 2019): imports fall, exports rise.
- Poor years (e.g., 2023): imports rise to offset domestic shortages.
In 2023, adverse weather reduced production by ~6% (to ~1.0 million tonnes), prompting import growth.
3. Main Suppliers: Comparative Analysis
3.1 Russia
- Price: ~$250–270/t, competitive.
- Logistics: Road/rail via Dagestan, efficient and cost-effective.
- Reliability: High; no major phytosanitary issues.
- Trade policy: Duty-free under CIS agreement.
- Seasonality: Autumn–spring.
3.2 Iran
- Price: Historically cheapest (~$240–250/t), but lower quality.
- Logistics: Road via Astara/Bilasuvar.
- Reliability: Decreased due to 2023 import ban (rot diseases). Also subject to Iranian export bans.
- Trade policy: No FTA; special temporary exemptions sometimes granted.
- Seasonality: Year-round due to diverse climates.
3.3 Georgia
- Price: $250–300/t.
- Logistics: Land border; low-cost.
- Reliability: High, strong phytosanitary controls.
- Trade policy: Free trade; rapidly rising exports.
- Seasonality: Summer and winter (highland regions).
3.4 Pakistan
- Price: Higher (~$300/t), niche supplier.
- Logistics: Road via Iran; relatively costly and long.
- Reliability: High; clean records.
- Trade policy: Friendly terms, no barriers.
- Seasonality: Jan–Mar (winter harvest).
3.5 Others (Belarus, Turkey)
- Belarus: High-quality, ~45,000 t in 2023; reliable; logistics via Russia.
- Turkey: Irregular supplier; seasonal bans possible; moderate pricing.
4. Domestic Production and Food Security
Average production: ~0.9–1.0 million tonnes/year. Estimated demand: ~1.3–1.5 million tonnes.
Self-sufficiency: Covers ~67% of demand.
Policy goals:
- Expand cultivated area.
- Increase yields with domestic seed production.
- Build modern storage infrastructure.
- Implement seasonal import tariffs and export bans as needed.
Outcomes:
- Improved yields in some regions (e.g., Jalilabad: up to 3 harvests/year).
- New storage facilities being built.
- 2023 production fell to ~930,000 t due to drought, causing price spikes.
Government aims to reach 80–90% self-sufficiency by 2029.
5. Five-Year Outlook (2025–2029)
1. Import structure:
- More diversified; no single country will dominate.
- Russia to remain #1 supplier (30–40% share).
- Belarus and Pakistan to grow roles.
- Iran unlikely to regain former dominance without quality reform.
- Georgia and Turkey to expand seasonal roles.
2. Production forecast:
- Likely growth to 1.2–1.3 million tonnes/year.
- Self-sufficiency may reach 75–80%.
- Imports may fall to 100–130 thousand tonnes/year.
3. Price trends:
- More stable with reduced reliance on imports.
- Seasonal regulation (import duties/export bans) to continue.
4. Food security:
- Improved resilience.
- Strategic reserve systems likely.
Conclusion:
Azerbaijan’s potato market is transitioning to a more resilient model. From 2019 to 2024, the country has moved away from dependency on a single supplier (Iran) toward a diversified network, with Russia, Belarus, and Pakistan emerging as key partners. Domestic production has grown with strong state support. Looking ahead, self-sufficiency is likely to increase, and imports will become more of a balancing mechanism than a primary source.
Sources used for the report:
- Official data from the State Statistical Committee of Azerbaijan and the State Customs Committee (2019–2024).
- News materials from agencies such as Interfax-Azerbaijan, Sputnik, Trend, ABC.AZ, etc., covering statistics, production, import volumes, and pricing.
- Industry analytical reviews from EastFruit and Potato System, including analysis of seasonality and regional trade flows.
- Statements from officials and comments by Azerbaijani agricultural market experts regarding food security and regulatory measures.
