Peru: CONVEAGRO Explains How It Estimated a 1.8 Million-Tonne Potato Loss From Drought

Peru’s National Agricultural Convention, CONVEAGRO, has told POTATOES NEWS that a developing El Niño event could cut potato output by around 1.8 million tonnes in the country’s drought-hit highland regions, in a written reply to questions this outlet raised about an earlier press estimate.

On 20 September, Infobae quoted CONVEAGRO general manager Luis Cruz Cuadros putting the potential loss at 1.7 million tonnes against annual production of about 3.7 million tonnes. POTATOES NEWS asked CONVEAGRO to clarify what the 3.7-million-tonne figure covered, since Peru’s Ministry of Agrarian Development and Irrigation (MIDAGRI) had reported national potato output of about 6.9 million tonnes for 2025.

CONVEAGRO’s reply resolves that discrepancy: the 3.7 million tonnes is the normal output of the highland regions affected by drought, which account for roughly 65% of Peru’s national potato production, not the country’s total harvest. Of that regional output, the organization estimates up to 1.8 million tonnes could be lost.

CONVEAGRO attributes the risk to a developing El Niño event expected to bring extreme rainfall to northern Peru alongside prolonged drought in the central and southern highlands (sierra centro y sur). It says rainfed farming makes up about 65% of Peru’s cultivated area, and that affected potato-growing zones face disrupted planting calendars, lighter tubers, and increased pest and disease pressure.

The organization’s technical team estimates that El Niño could cut Peru’s overall agricultural output nationwide by 30% to 60%, depending on the crop, with potato among the more exposed. It expects the event to fade by around mid-2027 and, on that timeline, forecasts potato production recovering only in 2028.

CONVEAGRO also flagged food-security concerns tied to reduced supply, including higher prices, inflationary pressure, and reduced purchasing power and employment in the affected regions.

The estimates were prepared by CONVEAGRO’s own technical team; POTATOES NEWS has not independently verified them, and CONVEAGRO’s reply did not detail the underlying methodology.