Global Potato Prices, Week 41/2026: Record 17x Gap, a New World Floor in Pakistan, and France at an All-Time High

Evening edition, 11 October 2026 · internal editorial document, potatoes.news
Basis: GLOBAL-DASHBOARD-W41 · price_obs + FAOSTAT + World Bank + USDA AMS + Agmarknet · FX: Bank of Russia rates of 10.10.2026

1. PRICE LEVELS AROUND THE WORLD (week 41)

Segments are kept apart: carton FOB, sack FOB, wholesale, free-buy, mandi and annual backdrop are not comparable (methodology rule §1).

2. MOVEMENTS (verified pairs)

3. ANALYST’S COMMENT

1. France sets a new world record: 1100 USD/t (real 2024) in 2025, a third consecutive year of growth (880→936→1100). The European deficit is not exhausted; Germany +13%, USA +6%, Russia +12% — moderate growth almost everywhere; only the UK retreats (−23% off its 2024 peak). The global split hit an all-time high: France is 8× Ukraine — the maximum of the entire 1991–2025 series.
   ⚠ v4 correction: an earlier version of this bulletin carried a false "reversal of the year" (Poland +34%, Belarus +44%) — an artefact of monthly rows in FAOSTAT data. Recomputed on clean annual values in the W41 dashboard.
2. The USA is two markets in one country: fresh cartons FOB $1235–1323/t versus an annual producer price of $258/t. A thin spot market plus contracted processing means every US figure must carry its basis, or the false conclusion "America is the most expensive" follows.
3. India is rising off the floor: mandi modal at 1220 INR/quintal (+43.5% since July), but this is seasonality, not trend. Spring saw 260–280 USD/t — India’s volatility remains the world’s largest (a 9.5× spread inside a single mandi).
4. Africa is an expensive pole that nobody mentions: Kenya at 430–575 USD/t wholesale (official NPCK/KAMIS) — on par with the UK; South Africa +70% in a season (255→415) amid extreme vegetable inflation (onions +268% y/y). Cheap Asia and expensive Africa coexist — a gap of up to 4× within Africa/Asia.
5. Latin America is the third expensive pole — and Mexico is in crisis: annual 2024 — Colombia 555 (+30%), Brazil 534 (+34%), Mexico 521; current October wholesale — Mexico 728–1559 USD/t (Mexico City retail +101.5% y/y, Profeco), Chile 1051 (seasonal peak at Lo Valledor), Peru 527–611 (MINAGRI). Mexico is currently more expensive than France. Argentina is excluded from USD comparisons — currency controls break the conversion (methodology rule).
6. Morocco — a second African price crisis: Casablanca wholesale 730–830 USD/t, +167% y/y (7–8 MAD/kg vs ~3 a year ago) on cold-store stocks after a weak, drought-hit harvest — a ~4× jump from the January farmgate floor of 2 MAD. Nigeria remains a documented white spot (FAO absolute prices break off in 2013; NGN official/parallel FX gap persists) — closure route: NBS food price watch.
7. Turkey — the first regular Middle East contour is open: nationwide wholesale average 515 USD/t (25.38 TRY/kg across 15–16 official wholesale halls, hal.gov.tr via haldefiyat.com), −13.6% month-on-month — the autumn seasonal floor; quality spread runs 8–50 TRY/kg = 162–1015 USD/t. The Bolu corridor of 14–17 TRY/kg has held since February — a benchmark for cross-border trade.
8. Iran — the second FX-divergent country after Argentina: the official IRR/USD rate understates the price several-fold over, so no USD series is built (methodology rule). Official potato PPI: +49.5% y/y in 2025 (FAOSTAT); Tehran retail passed 500,000 IRR/kg in February 2025 (×3.3 in a year, Iran International) — amid 105–134% food inflation potatoes were the "slowest" food item (~+20% y/y, May 2026). Wholesale estimate ~380 USD/t carries confirmed=0.
9. Pakistan — the new world floor (90 USD/t) and Asia’s second glut crisis: official auction wholesale AMIS Punjab (41 mandis, daily): median 25.5 Rs/kg ≈ 90 USD/t on 11.10 — below Bangladesh. January crisis: farmgate 10–15 Rs/kg below cost, demand 6.2M t vs a ~12M t crop, Afghan border closed (Dawn; government answer — export mobilisation to 36 countries, MNFSR); +72% rebound by August (PBS). Free daily source — joins the weekly collection.
10. Japan — Asia’s expensive pole (1000 USD/t): wholesale median 158 JPY/kg even after a −33% w/w drop as the new crop arrives; backdrop — a small Hokkaido harvest (MAFF: >+30% vs the 5-year average) and Japanese food inflation. Asia is the world’s most split region: Pakistan 90 / Japan 1000 = 11× inside one continent.
11. UK is chasing its 2024 peak: free-buy recovering toward £360–400/t after February’s slump (£180). No official report exists (AHDB closed in 2022) — the figure is a media quote, pending confirmation.

4. CAVEATS

• All conversions at Bank of Russia (CBR) rates of 10.10.2026; for non-ruble markets this is a comparability convention.
• Subscription sources (WPM, IKAR): signal only; open duplication required before on-site publication.
• EEX futures (Trading Economics) excluded from benchmarks (broken CFD, 15–20× below reality).
• Annual changes 2024→2025 in real USD-2024, v4 (clean annual data); India 2025 reconstructed via FAO index.
• Latin America: current-price USD conversions use WB-2025 annual average rates (PEN 3.57; CLP 951; MXN 19.24; BRL 5.59; COP 4053) — estimates, confirmed=0; local-currency prices from official bulletins. FAO 2025 (flag E) excluded: internally inconsistent by 1.5–3×.

5. KEY TAKEAWAY

Week 41/2026: the potato world is split into three expensive poles — Europe (France at a record 1100), Africa (Kenya 430–575) and Latin America (Mexico now 728–1559, in crisis at +101.5% y/y) — against cheap Asia (India 144) and the post-Soviet space (Russia 234, Ukraine 139), a record gap of up to 8×. A "potato price" without a basis and a segment is not a price: the US proves it weekly (FOB cartons 1235–1323 vs an annual 258). Watch: a second source for UK free-buy £400 and for the Mexican crisis; in October the Western Hemisphere is more expensive than the Eastern — a first for the entire observation series.

Photo: Narek75 / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0