EU Potato Yield Forecast Holds at 34.2 t/ha — 12% Below Last Year, MARS October Report Confirms
The European Commission’s October MARS bulletin keeps the EU potato yield forecast at 34.2 tonnes per hectare — 12% below 2025 and 8% under the five-year average — with Germany and France carrying the heaviest losses and Romania a rare bright spot.
The European Commission is holding its ground. The Joint Research Centre’s October assessment, published 26 October, keeps the average EU potato yield — including seed potatoes — at 34.2 tonnes per hectare, unchanged from the September estimate. That figure sits 12% below the 38.9 tonnes harvested per hectare last year and 8% under the five-year average. Behind the stable headline number, however, the country-level picture continues to shift, and it confirms how unevenly this season’s drought has cut across the continent.
Germany loses nearly a fifth of its yield. Germany ranks among the hardest-hit potato countries. The Commission expects an average yield of 37.1 tonnes per hectare there — 19% less than last year and 15% below the five-year average. Potatoes on lighter soils suffered most from the moisture deficit; results on heavier soils are better, though drought restricted tuber development there as well.
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France slips again. The French forecast has been lowered once more, to 35.5 tonnes per hectare — around 14% below the five-year average. Exceptionally warm and dry conditions persisted into September and the first half of October, with the rainfall deficit largest in central and eastern France. Harvest work, by contrast, is running smoothly: thanks to predominantly dry weather the French harvest is ahead of the usual schedule and is expected to be finished by the end of the month.
The Netherlands edges up, Belgium stalls. The Dutch forecast was raised by 1% to 41.5 tonnes per hectare after recent rainfall delivered some extra tuber growth — still 3% under the five-year average. Belgium’s estimate is unchanged at 38.3 tonnes per hectare, roughly 8% below the five-year average, with researchers pointing especially to the small tubers being found at harvest after the hot, dry summer.
The east tells a different story. Poland’s forecast held at 31.5 tonnes per hectare — still about 3% above the five-year average, as recent weeks brought more favorable weather than in much of Western Europe. Romania stands out most: favorable growing conditions in the east of the country pushed the forecast up to 17.3 tonnes per hectare — by European standards merely half a crop, yet for Romania a yield well above both last year and the five-year average.
Why it matters. The east-west split now visible in the MARS numbers reframes the season’s narrative: Northwest Europe’s processing belt absorbs yield losses of roughly 15–19% against the five-year average, while Poland and Romania actually outperform their recent norms. For processors, that geography matters as much as the EU average — raw material contracts, freight economics and factory utilization are all anchored in the deficit zone. With the French harvest nearly complete and Dutch tubers still gaining a little weight, the 34.2-tonne EU figure is effectively locked in. The next question is not yield but quality: how much of this smaller crop meets processing specifications after a summer of heat stress and small tuber size.
Sources: Commodity Board (citing the JRC MARS assessment of 26 October 2026); same-week MARS coverage of other EU crops: GBM.
