Germany’s 2026 potato crop: where ECIU’s 1.13 million tonne loss and €240 price come from

Lead. Two figures from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit’s (ECIU) analysis of the 2026 north-west European potato harvest have circulated widely in German media: a drought-related loss of 1.13 million tonnes in Germany, and processing potatoes selling at around €240 a tonne against a low of €15 in June. In reply to a POTATOES NEWS enquiry, ECIU explained exactly how both numbers were built — and what they do not say.

The price: €15 to €240 is old crop versus new crop

The €240 a tonne is the REKA quotation for processing potatoes in the Rhineland, published weekly during the season by the Rheinische Erzeugergemeinschaft Kartoffeln. ECIU took it from World Potato Markets issue 783 (1 September 2026), which reported a range of €220–260 a tonne with €240 as the midpoint; issue 784 (8 September) reported it unchanged.

The €15 a tonne comes from the same REKA series at the end of June 2026 — the low point of the 2025/26 old-crop season after the 2025 glut. The comparison is therefore end-of-season old crop against opening new-crop prices, not a like-for-like move within one season.

It is also a free-market quotation. It applies only to the minority of processing potatoes traded outside contracts — roughly 20–30% of supply. Contracted volumes are being delivered at 2026/27 contract prices agreed last winter. ECIU says it values the loss at those contract prices, so that the drought-driven price spike does not inflate the value of the loss.

The volume: 1.13 million tonnes against a five-year average

• Baseline: 43.7 t/ha, the 2021–2025 average German yield from Eurostat crop production statistics (dataset apro_cpsh1, all potatoes including seed and starch).
• 2026 yield: 39.5 t/ha, derived by dividing AMI’s first crop estimate of 10.6 million tonnes (27 August 2026, reported by top agrar) by the 2026 planted area of 268,300 ha from the federal agriculture ministry’s Erntebericht 2026 (2 September).
• Loss: (43.7 − 39.5) × 268,300 ha ≈ 1.13 million tonnes.

The figure is not a comparison with the 2025 crop, and no trend yield is used.

The area cut is counted separately

Germany’s potato area fell from 301,800 ha in 2025 (Destatis) to 268,300 ha in 2026, about 11%. At baseline yield, that equals a further 1.46 million tonnes not grown. ECIU deliberately excludes it from the 1.13 million tonnes, because it was a planting decision made before the season, not an effect of the weather.

How firm is the number?

AMI’s figure of 13.9 million tonnes for 2025 matches Eurostat’s official 13.87 million, so the 2026 estimate sits on the same basis as the baseline. Still, ECIU describes the German row as an analyst-derived estimate pending the official Destatis yield due in November or December. Every 1 t/ha change in the German yield moves the loss by about 0.27 million tonnes.

Key figures

Why it matters

For processors and traders, the headline €15-to-€240 jump describes the free-market fringe, not the contract base that carries most of Germany’s processing supply. For growers and analysts, the real weather effect is roughly 1.13 million tonnes; lumping in the smaller planted area would push the "loss" to about 2.6 million tonnes and overstate the drought’s role. The official Destatis yield later this year will confirm or revise the number.

Sources: ECIU — potato harvest analysis; ECIU reply to POTATOES NEWS, 23 September 2026; REKA Rheinland; World Potato Markets, issues 783 and 784; Eurostat apro_cpsh1; top agrar / AMI; BMLEH Erntebericht 2026; Destatis.