USA: 2026 Potato Crop Forecast at 394.6 Million Cwt, Smallest Since 2010
North American Potato Market News expects U.S. growers to produce 394.6 million cwt in 2026 — 4.4% below the 2025 estimate and 5.5% under the five-year average.
North American Potato Market News (NAPMN) expects U.S. growers to produce 394.6 million cwt of potatoes in 2026, based on crop conditions in early September. The projection is 18.3 million cwt, or 4.4%, below USDA’s estimate for the 2025 crop.
If realized, the 2026 potato crop would fall 5.5% below the five-year average production and would be the smallest U.S. potato crop since 2010.
The smaller crop explains much of the current firmness in fresh-market prices. Russet Norkotah prices have remained strong through the early harvest period, with cartons holding well above year-ago levels as packers compete for limited supplies of quality tubers.
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For processors, a smaller national crop tightens contract negotiations for the 2027 season. Industry analysts expect producers of French fries to move early to secure raw material, especially in the Columbia Basin, where yields were pressured by summer heat.
USDA’s final estimate for the 2025 crop, released at the end of September, will set the baseline for storage-season supply calculations. Growers and buyers alike will watch the October Crop Production report for any revision to yields in Idaho and Washington, the two states that together account for more than half of U.S. output.
