Turkey: Potato Output Seen at 6.2 Mt in 2026, 10% Below the 2024 Peak
Key takeaways
- 6.2 Mt is the first TÜİK estimate for the 2026 potato crop
- 6.9 Mt was the record Turkish potato harvest of 2024
- 3.1% is the expected fall in 2026 output versus 2025 level
- 35.2 t/ha was the average Turkish potato yield in 2024
Why it matters
- For farmers
- Watch the second TÜİK estimate in autumn before storage decisions, as smaller crops can support prices later in the season.
- For processors
- Secure contracts early for 2026/27, since a second smaller crop may reduce free-market raw material.
- For traders
- Treat early TÜİK estimates as a range: recent forecasts missed final output by several hundred thousand tonnes.
60-second summary
Official Turkish estimates point to a second smaller potato crop in a row after the 2024 record. TÜİK sees 6.2 million tonnes for 2026, down 3.1 percent on the 6.4 million tonnes of 2025 and about a tenth below the 6.9 million tonnes of 2024, a level FAOSTAT also reports. Early estimates have proved unreliable: the October 2024 forecast of 6.5 million tonnes was later raised, and the 2025 second estimate of 6.0 million tonnes ended higher. Over the longer term, FAOSTAT data show output up by roughly half since 2010, with yields around 35 tonnes per hectare and most growth coming from more land. Exporters, processors and buyers in neighbouring markets should plan for tighter Turkish supply. The caveat is that the 2025 and 2026 figures come from TÜİK as reported by one trade journal, and the 2026 number is only a first estimate that may still be revised in autumn.
Turkey expects to harvest 6.2 million tonnes of potatoes in 2026. The figure comes from the first crop estimate of the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), as reported by the agricultural journal Tarım Dünyası on 4 June 2026. It is 3.1% below the 2025 crop.
Output peaked at 6.9 million tonnes in 2024. It was the highest level in five years, according to the same report. FAOSTAT confirms the 2024 figure of 6.9 million tonnes. The 2025 harvest reached 6.4 million tonnes.
Estimates move a lot
TÜİK publishes several estimates during each season. The figures can change significantly. In October 2024, TÜİK expected 6.5 million tonnes, a rise of 14%. The final 2024 figure was 6.9 million tonnes.
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For 2025, the second estimate in October 2025 pointed to 6.0 million tonnes, a fall of 13%. The later figure of 6.4 million tonnes was higher. Traders and processors should therefore treat early estimates as a range, not a fixed number.
Long-term growth from area and yield
Over a longer period, Turkey has grown its crop strongly. FAOSTAT shows output of 4.51 million tonnes in 2010. The rise to 6.9 million tonnes in 2024 equals about 53%.
Yields are already high. FAOSTAT puts the 2024 average at 35.2 t/ha, up from 32.5 t/ha in 2010. Dividing output by yield gives a harvested area of about 196,000 hectares in 2024, against about 139,000 hectares in 2010. Most of the growth therefore came from more land.
Turkish yields are close to those of Mexico at 32.7 t/ha and Iran at 32.3 t/ha, according to FAOSTAT 2024 data.
Price pressure in 2025
In its October 2025 report, Tarım Dünyası listed potatoes among the crops where farmers faced serious difficulties. It noted notable price declines for the crop in 2025.
Why it matters
Turkey is one of the largest potato producers in the wider region. Two smaller crops in a row reduce the surplus available for export and processing. For buyers in neighbouring markets, supply from Turkey may be tighter in the 2026/27 season. The frequent revisions in official estimates also show why early numbers need careful handling.
Photo: A potato field in Bozköy, Turkey (illustrative). Nsc3397 at Turkish Wikipedia / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain
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What next
TÜİK normally publishes further crop estimates during the season. The next update will show whether the 6.2-million-tonne forecast for 2026 holds.
Sources
- Tarım Dünyası (A.E. Yıldırım), Bitkisel üretimde 25 ürünün 5 yıllık üretim karnesi, 04.06.2026 (TÜİK data) — https://www.tarimdunyasi.net/bitkisel-uretimde-25-urunun-5-yillik-uretim-karnesi/
- Tarım Dünyası, Bitkisel üretimde 'kara' tablo netleşiyor, 24.10.2025 (TÜİK 2nd estimate 2025) — https://www.tarimdunyasi.net/bitkisel-uretimde-kara-tablo-netlesiyor/
- Tarım Dünyası, Tarımda 2024'te hangi ürünlerin üretimi arttı, 25.10.2024 — https://www.tarimdunyasi.net/tarimda-2024te-hangi-urunlerin-uretimi-artti-hangileri-azaldi/
- Our World in Data, potato production (FAOSTAT data, accessed 25.09.2026) — https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/potato-production
- Our World in Data, potato yields (FAOSTAT data, accessed 25.09.2026) — https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/potato-yields
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