Russia Halves Potato Imports as Europe and the US Cut Area: Global Supply Tightens Ahead of Winter
Russia imported 420,000 tonnes of potatoes in the first half of 2026, nearly half the volume of a year earlier, while the EU and the US have cut potato area. Analysts expect processed potato products to show the strongest price recovery.
Russia imported 420,000 tonnes of potatoes in the first half of 2026, nearly half the volume of the same period of 2025, 161.ru reported on 22 October citing the Potato Union. At the same time, the European Union and the United States have reduced potato area, and analysts quoted by UkrAgroConsult on 21 October expect world prices to rise in the fourth quarter as production falls in key regions.
Europe: less area, less raw material for processing
According to the UkrAgroConsult review, which cites Sunsirs and analysts at the Xinhua Index Research Institute, potato area in the EU fell by 12.78% in the 2026/27 season. Summer heat and drought added to the decline, and output of potatoes for processing fell noticeably, which could affect French fries and other processed products. Prices in the EU nevertheless remained under pressure through the third quarter.
The analysts expect the processed-products segment to show the most potential for a price recovery, as lower output gradually offsets excess stocks. How far prices rise, in their view, will depend on how quickly supply shrinks, on demand from the food industry and on competition among major exporters.
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United States: lowest area since 1952
In the US, planted area for the 2026/27 marketing year fell by 3.81% to about 351,000 hectares, a historic low, according to the same review. FreshPlaza, citing USDA Economic Research Service data via Mintec, reported on 20 October that potato area is at its lowest level since 1952 and that the harvest is forecast 2–4% below the 412.86 million cwt produced in 2025.
The US market is not short of everything, however. Frozen French fry inventories at the end of June stood at 1 billion pounds, up 4% year on year, while frozen fry exports through May were down 9%, FreshPlaza reported. In retail, the average potato price in US supermarkets in August was 12.71% higher than a year earlier, according to UkrAgroConsult.
Russia: imports halved, import costs expected to rise
In Russia, imports reached a record of about 1 million tonnes in 2025, while historically the country imports around 500,000 tonnes a year, 161.ru reported. The peak was 1.5 million tonnes in 2011, after the 2010 drought. The main suppliers are Egypt, Belarus and Azerbaijan, with China's share growing.
Alexei Krasilnikov, executive director of the Potato Union, expects import costs to rise. He cites problems at Azov–Black Sea ports and the shift to St Petersburg ports, higher freight and insurance costs, and the European drought, which he describes as the worst in about 30 years and which may pull Egyptian potatoes towards Europe.
Russia itself expects a harvest of about 7.5–8 million tonnes in 2026, down from a record 8.5 million tonnes last year. According to Krasilnikov, even 7.5 million tonnes would cover table and processing needs. In the first half of 2026 Russia exported more than 150,000 tonnes of potatoes, about 95% of them to Kazakhstan, and exports are expected to rise towards the end of the year.
What this means for farms and the market
- Less room for cheap imports: with smaller crops in the EU and the US and higher logistics costs, Russian growers with sound stored potatoes face less competition from imports in the second half of the season.
- Processing is where the shift may show first: analysts see the processed segment as the most likely to recover in price, which matters for growers negotiating processing contracts for 2027.
- Export opportunities remain regional: Kazakhstan accounts for almost all Russian potato exports, so growers in neighbouring regions should watch demand there towards the end of the year.
Sources: 161.ru (22.10.2026) https://161.ru/text/economics/2026/10/22/76716206/ ; UkrAgroConsult / Sunsirs (21.10.2026) https://ukragroconsult.com/ru/news/mirovoj-rynok-kartofelya-ozhidaet-rosta-czen-na-fone-sokrashheniya-proizvodstva/ ; FreshPlaza / Mintec / USDA ERS (20.10.2026) https://www.freshplaza.com/north-america/article/9884543/u-s-potato-acreage-falls-to-lowest-level-since-1952/
