Potato Imports to Russia Set to Nearly Double
A combination of poor weather conditions, shrinking cultivation areas, and market exits by key producers has led to a significant drop in Russia’s potato harvest in 2024. According to the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), imports of table potatoes are expected to reach 470,000 tons this season, up from 245,000 tons the previous year. At the same time, exports are projected to decline sharply, from 220,000 tons in 2023/24 to just 85,000 tons in 2025.
The production shortfall is significant. In 2023, Russia harvested a record 8.62 million tons of potatoes, the highest in 30 years. However, in 2024, the industrial sector’s output fell to 7.37 million tons, largely due to adverse weather conditions and reduced planting areas in key potato-growing regions. The result has been a dramatic price surge, with potatoes becoming the most inflationary food item of 2024. According to Rosstat, retail prices for potatoes in Russia have nearly doubled, increasing by 92%.
High Prices and Import Challenges
Despite the recent strengthening of the Russian ruble, imported potatoes remain expensive. Egyptian potatoes, a key source of imports, are currently priced at around 100 rubles per kilogram, while the domestic market’s average price stands at 62 rubles per kilogram. In response to the crisis, the Russian government has introduced duty-free import quotas, allowing up to 150,000 tons of potatoes to enter the country without tariffs.
Egypt, a traditional supplier of potatoes to Russia, shifted its exports to Europe last year due to logistical and payment challenges, as well as Russia’s previously strong domestic supply. However, with domestic shortages driving demand, Egypt is now restoring its export volumes to Russia. Additionally, Turkey is making efforts to enter the Russian market with early-harvest potatoes, a move that marks a shift in trade dynamics since Turkey has not traditionally been among the top potato suppliers to Russia.
Future Outlook for Russian Potato Production
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has announced plans to expand potato cultivation areas in 2025 by 2.3%, adding approximately 7,000 hectares. However, while production costs have risen by 17%, profitability has also significantly increased—from 12.8% to 26.8%—due to higher consumer prices. Despite these incentives, leading potato producers remain hesitant to expand their acreage. Some have switched to more profitable crops such as sunflower, soy, and rapeseed, and returning to potato farming could be challenging.
Russia’s potato market is undergoing a major transformation, with declining domestic production leading to increased reliance on expensive imports. While government measures aim to stabilize prices, the long-term solution requires investment in domestic potato farming. With shifting trade dynamics and cautious expansion plans from major producers, the Russian potato sector faces uncertainty in the coming years.
