Satellite images confirm lower potato yields in Poland’s main growing regions as GUS cuts crop estimate to 5.9 Mt

Poland’s Central Statistical Office (GUS) has cut its national potato harvest estimate to 5.9 million tonnes — 15.4 per cent below 2025 — after satellite imagery confirmed lower yields in the three main producing provinces. The national average yield is now estimated at 31.3 tonnes per hectare.

Satellite imagery used by Poland’s Central Statistical Office (GUS) has confirmed potato yields below initial estimates in the country’s three main producing regions, Argenpapa reports.

At the end of September, the agency calculated a national harvest of 5.9 million tonnes — a volume that represents a decrease of 15.4 per cent compared with 2025. The official estimate establishes a national average yield of 31.3 tonnes per hectare. GUS is incorporating satellite images to improve the precision of its calculations and detect differences between producing regions.

The most recent observations led to reduced forecasts in the three provinces that concentrate the largest potato area. Wielkopolskie, also known as Greater Poland, has more than 28,000 hectares cultivated and is the main producing region; there, the yield estimate was reduced from 39 to 37.4 tonnes per hectare. In Łódzkie, the second province in importance with more than 22,000 hectares, the forecast fell from 33.8 to 31.4 tonnes per hectare. The expected yield in Kujawsko-Pomorskie, with more than 20,000 hectares of potatoes, was also corrected downwards — from 33.6 to 32.6 tonnes per hectare.

Despite the reductions observed in the main producing zones, estimates improved in seven of Poland’s sixteen provinces. The most important correction was registered in Lubuskie, where the expected yield rose from 19.7 to 24.6 tonnes per hectare. In Małopolskie, also known as Lesser Poland, the estimate climbed from 28.2 to 31.2 tonnes per hectare.

The use of satellite imagery allows the state of crops to be observed and regional forecasts to be adjusted as the campaign advances. The new results confirm that the production fall will be more pronounced in some of the zones that concentrate most of Poland’s potato area.

The Polish downgrade matters beyond the country’s borders. Poland is one of the European Union’s largest potato producers, and a 15.4 per cent contraction in a single season reshapes the balance of the central European market — particularly for processing raw material and late-season table supply. The fact that the revision came from satellite observation rather than field surveys also marks a methodological shift: GUS is now verifying its crop estimates against spaceborne data in near real time, which means regional overestimates are caught before the harvest is even finished.

For traders, the divergence between regions is the detail to watch. While the big three provinces were revised down, seven provinces saw their estimates raised — a reminder that Poland’s potato geography is fragmenting, with the traditional western and central heartlands underperforming while smaller regions hold up better.

Whether the final harvest figures confirm the satellite-based estimate will become clear as lifting concludes in the coming weeks. For now, the 5.9-million-tonne estimate stands as the reference number for Polish supply this autumn — and a further argument in the wider picture of a tight European potato year.