Paraguay revises 2026 potato crop down to 5,078 tonnes worth US$4.27 million

Paraguay’s 2026 potato harvest is set to reach about 5,078 tonnes from 391 hectares, according to revised estimates from the country’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, MAG. The ministry values the crop at around 25.4 billion guaraníes, roughly US$4.27 million, at a farm-gate price of about 5,000 guaraníes per kilogram. Even so, domestic output will cover only around 12% of national consumption, leaving the market heavily reliant on imports from Argentina and Brazil.

The new figures, compiled by MAG’s Agricultural Extension Directorate and reported by ABC Color on 31 October, put the national average yield at 12.99 t/ha. They replace an earlier estimate published a few days before by La Nación and relayed by Argenpapa, which had cited about 5,500 tonnes, a yield of around 14 t/ha and an economic value of US$4.42 million.

Harvesting will continue until December, so all figures remain provisional and will depend on weather, crop health and post-harvest losses.

Gross value, not farm income

MAG calculated the value of the crop using a reference farm-gate price of around 5,000 guaraníes per kilogram, equivalent to 100,000 guaraníes for a 20 kg box, or approximately US$0.84 per kilogram. The ministry stresses that the resulting 25.39 billion guaraníes represents potential gross revenue rather than growers’ profit, as it does not deduct the cost of seed, fertilisers, crop protection products, labour, harvesting, transport or marketing.

Production concentrated in Paraguarí

Potatoes are grown in ten departments, but production is highly concentrated. Paraguarí accounts for 210 of the 391 hectares, or 53.7% of the national area. Onions, by contrast, are spread far more evenly across the country.

Over the season, around 11,719 bags of seed and inputs, totalling some 527 tonnes, were distributed for planting.

Together, potatoes and onions occupy 1,144 hectares and are expected to generate gross value of about 69.44 billion guaraníes, or around US$11.68 million. Onions account for roughly 63% of that total and potatoes for 37%.

Import dependence remains

According to MAG, Paraguay consumes around 43,000 tonnes of potatoes a year, or roughly 100 tonnes a day. This season’s crop therefore covers only about 12% of annual demand, equivalent to some 50 days of consumption. The rest is imported, mainly from Argentina and increasingly from Brazil.

The fragility of that supply model was exposed this summer. In July, following complaints of shortages from traders, MAG reopened the market to potato imports. Última Hora reported that by the end of July some shops were charging up to 12,700 guaraníes per kilogram, around two and a half times the farm-gate price MAG now uses for domestic potatoes. Importers said that tight availability in Argentina had forced them to turn to Brazilian suppliers.

Smaller area amid seed shortfall

The 2026 figures are well below those announced by the ministry a year earlier. In June 2025, MAG reported that the potato area had grown to around 600 hectares and production had reached 7,635 tonnes. While the two sets of data may not be strictly comparable, they point to a contraction of roughly a third in planted area.

A likely factor is a reduction in state-supplied seed. In August, growers’ associations in the Paraguarí districts of Ybytymí and General Bernardino Caballero said that more than 400 producers had been left out of MAG’s seed distribution programme. Adrián Jara, manager of the Paraguarí Agricultural Development Centre, confirmed that the shortfall would reduce the department’s potato area by about 200 hectares, but said he did not know why supplies had been cut.

MAG had announced in July that it was delivering 411 tonnes of seed potatoes to 1,193 growers in five Paraguarí districts under a programme worth 6.7 billion guaraníes.

The currency effect

The gap between the two dollar estimates reflects exchange rates as well as volume. The earlier figure of US$4.42 million corresponds to a rate of about 6,228 guaraníes to the dollar, the Central Bank of Paraguay’s official rate at the start of 2026. The guaraní has since strengthened markedly, appreciating by around 10.5% against the dollar by early August, and MAG’s revised estimate uses a rate of roughly 5,950. For domestic growers competing with imports, a stronger guaraní also means cheaper foreign potatoes.

Target of 20 t/ha

MAG aims to raise average potato yields from the current 12–13 t/ha to 20 t/ha and to extend the period when domestic produce is on the market through early plantings in March and April, harvested in July and August. The ministry is also urging growers’ associations to produce and store their own seed to reduce reliance on state supplies.

Sources: Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock of Paraguay, ABC Color, La Nación, Última Hora, Argenpapa, PotatoPro, EFE.