In 2024, the NEPG countries (EU-04: Belgium, Germany, France and the Netherlands) harvested 24.7 million tonnes of potatoes, up 6.9% on 2023. Despite the increased supply, the market remains dynamic.
Since the beginning of February 2024, producer prices have risen sharply:
In October-November, prices were at €12.50/100 kg.
In early February 2024, the price reached €30.00/100 kg.
NEPG analysts are surprised by such a rapid price increase since January, noting that further market movements will depend on the availability of stocks and spring sowing conditions.
Potato planting area may increase in 2025
Favorable market conditions and the lack of alternative crops may lead to an increase in potato planting area. However, NEPG analysts warn of risks:
A decrease in yield in the long term leads to an increase in production costs per hectare.
An increase in planting area means a high risk of overproduction if weather conditions are normal.
Farmers should take these factors into account and not focus only on the current high prices.
Although the price of seed potatoes is generally lower than in the spring of 2023, it has increased by 10-15% compared to last year. This leads to additional financial risks for producers.
Processors are also taking measures to control the quality of raw materials:
Penalty tariffs are being introduced for high soil content in potatoes.
Contract prices for potatoes in the NEPG zone remain stable, but the free purchase market will determine further price adjustments.
The potato market is influenced by several global factors:
Growth of French fry exports from China and India – new players are increasing competition.
Strict EU environmental standards – tightening of rules on pesticides and fertilizers.
Risk of changes in foreign trade after the US elections – possible new trade barriers for frozen potato products from the EU.
Aggressive expansion of exports from Egypt, Argentina and Turkey – pressure on the positions of European producers.
Rise of soil diseases – Stolbur, nematodes, wireworms and other pathogens increase risks for production.
All these factors make potato production in Europe more complex and risky, requiring modern crop and market management tools.
NEPG experts warn farmers:
Do not blindly increase the area, focusing only on current prices.
First consider the needs of processors, and do not anticipate the market.
The potato market is becoming increasingly complex and volatile, and farmers’ success will depend on the right strategic approach.
Do you think potato producers will be able to balance supply and demand in 2025? Share your opinion in the comments!
