Hokkaido’s 2026 potato harvest is shaping up as one of the best of the last decade, helped by moderate temperatures and well-timed rains. Calbee Potato expects to purchase 240,000–250,000 tonnes from the island, up from 230,000 tonnes in the previous, drought-hit campaign.
Hokkaido’s potato harvest in 2026 is delivering one of its best results of the last decade, favored by more moderate temperatures and a well-distributed rainfall pattern during crop development. Growers report good yields, larger tuber sizes and a general improvement in quality compared with previous campaigns affected by heat and drought.
Weather favored tuber formation. Temperatures stayed below the elevated levels recorded in recent years, and precipitation accompanied the main stages of the crop cycle. These conditions allowed plants to maintain photosynthetic activity and direct more nutrients into tuber growth. The combination of moderate daytime temperatures and wide day-night thermal amplitude proved especially favorable for yield and dry-matter accumulation — the two parameters chip makers watch most closely.
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Calbee plans to buy up to 250,000 tonnes. Calbee Potato estimates it will purchase between 240,000 and 250,000 tonnes of Hokkaido-grown potatoes in 2026, above the 230,000 tonnes bought in the previous campaign. The company had acquired approximately 250,000 tonnes in 2023 and 245,000 tonnes in 2024, before heat and insufficient rainfall reduced both volume and quality during 2025.
Better size and quality for industry. Beyond higher yields, the campaign stands out for the size and quality of tubers destined for the processing industry. The recovery is significant for chips and other derived products, after reduced raw-material availability in 2025 forced the limitation of some commercial actions during peak-demand periods. Among the varieties grown is Toyoshiro, used for processing and chip production.
Plot-by-plot management. Calbee Potato also attributes part of the improvement to joint work with growers to adjust fertilization and irrigation to each farm’s characteristics. The company carried out soil analyses and designed nutrition programs specific to each plot; in some areas it also ran irrigation trials and observed better performance from irrigated crops — a data point likely to push more Hokkaido operations toward supplemental irrigation after last year’s drought losses.
Harvest risks persist. Despite the good outlook, the industry remains cautious about the possibility of heavy rain during the final harvest stage. Excess moisture can prevent heavy harvesters from entering fields and delay tuber lifting; if delays coincide with high temperatures, the risk of diseases and pests also rises. Hokkaido concentrates most of Japan’s potato production and is the main source of raw material for the national industry, so the campaign’s strong performance improves supply prospects for the coming months.
For Japan’s snack market, a normal-to-strong Hokkaido crop removes the supply anxiety that shadowed 2025 — and Calbee’s procurement target signals confidence that chips demand will hold. It also restores the island’s leverage with growers: a buyer willing to commit to a quarter-million tonnes, backed by agronomy support, sets the benchmark for the whole domestic raw-potato market.
Sources: FreshPlaza; PotatoPro.
