Europe’s 2026/27 Processing Potato Supply Set to Tighten Sharply on Shrinking Acres and Drought
Europe’s industrial potato sector faces a supply deficit in the 2026/27 season, driven by reduced planting areas, extreme heat and drought across key producing regions. According to World Potato Markets, the 2026 harvest could fall below 40 million tonnes for the first time — roughly 15 million tonnes less than last year. The decline follows an oversupply in 2025/26, which prompted growers to cut acreage in Germany, France, the Netherlands, Belgium and Poland in an effort to rebalance the market. Five recent heatwaves and the subsequent drought are expected to compound the shortfall further. The tightening supply coincides with rising European exports of processed potato products: EU shipments to South America rose 45.1% year-on-year in June, led by Brazil, Colombia and Chile, while deliveries to the Middle East climbed 23% and exports to Africa 26.8%, according to Trade Data Monitor. Asia, however, remains 23% below year-earlier levels over the past 12 months amid stronger competition from regional suppliers. Market sources note that North American trade conditions have also shaped EU export activity, with US tariff policy and trade uncertainty disrupting supply chains and Canadian frozen fry exports potentially facing duties of up to 50% on entry to the US market — a situation reportedly pushing buyers in the Middle East and elsewhere toward European product.
Harvest concerns have also fed through to fresh potato prices. In late July 2026, Expana base prices for Fontane processing potatoes on an EXW Belgium basis jumped from €10 ($12) per tonne to €150 ($176) per tonne by early August. Trading has been slow, with some farmers delaying harvest in the hope of rain. Although precipitation was expected the following week, growers remained uncertain how it would affect yields and tuber size. As of 25 August, prices held at €150 ($176) per tonne while the market waited for clearer signals on harvest availability.
