Brazil: São Paulo Winter Potato Crop Falls 56% as Planted Area Shrinks
Key takeaways
- 115,241 t: São Paulo winter crop in 2026, down 55.8%
- 57.8% cut in São Paulo winter area, to 3,187 hectares
- 17.5% fall in the Minas Gerais winter crop to 403,036 t
- 33.3% drop in the Rio Grande do Sul second crop to 46,040 t
Why it matters
- For farmers
- If you grow winter potatoes in Minas Gerais or Bahia, talk to Southeast buyers now: São Paulo supply is less than half of last year.
- For processors
- Chip and packing plants in São Paulo should secure winter volume from Minas Gerais and Bahia to cover the local shortfall.
- For traders
- Build winter supply lines from Minas Gerais and Bahia into São Paulo markets while local output stays low.
- For suppliers
- Expect lower seed and input sales in São Paulo; shift sales effort to states that kept their winter area stable.
60-second summary
Winter potato supply from São Paulo state is set to be less than half of last season. State data from the national statistics agency show a third-season crop of about 115,000 tonnes, compared with more than 260,000 tonnes a year before. The reason is simple: farmers cut the planted area by almost 58 percent, while yields per hectare even improved slightly. Minas Gerais, the biggest producer, also trimmed its winter output by about 17 percent, whereas Bahia held steady. In the second season, Rio Grande do Sul lost a third of its volume and São Paulo close to a fifth. Packing houses and chip makers in the Southeast will need to source more from Minas Gerais, Bahia and other states during the dry months. Seed and input sellers in São Paulo face a weaker season. Keep in mind that these are survey estimates for a harvest still in progress, and the next monthly update from the agency may change the state numbers.
São Paulo state will harvest far fewer winter potatoes this year. IBGE, the national statistics agency, estimates the third-season crop at 115,241 tonnes. In 2025 it was 260,888 tonnes. The fall is 55.8%.
The data come from the August Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA). State figures are in the SIDRA database. The 2025 base is the final LSPA estimate of December 2025.
Area was cut by more than half
Growers in São Paulo planted 3,187 ha for the winter crop. A year earlier they planted 7,557 ha. That is a cut of 57.8%.
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Yields did not cause the drop. Our calculation gives about 36.2 t/ha in 2026, against about 34.5 t/ha in 2025.
Minas Gerais, the largest producing state, also planted less. Its winter crop is estimated at 403,036 t, down 17.5%. Area fell 20.4%, from 12,989 ha to 10,343 ha.
Bahia kept its winter area at 2,650 ha. Its crop is stable at 114,607 t.
Second crop also smaller
The second season shows the same picture in most states:
- Minas Gerais: 563,948 t, down 6.9%.
- São Paulo: 326,900 t, down 18.4%; area down 24.5%.
- Paraná: 298,700 t, down 3.4%.
- Rio Grande do Sul: 46,040 t, down 33.3%.
- Santa Catarina: 14,477 t, down 10.8%.
At national level, IBGE expects 4.20 million tonnes in 2026, down 8.2%. The winter crop is 893,762 t, down 19.1%.
Why it matters
São Paulo and Minas Gerais supply the big Southeast markets in the dry season. The main winter area includes Vargem Grande do Sul in São Paulo. A crop half as large in São Paulo reduces local supply for washing and packing plants and for chip processors.
The cut is a planting decision, not a yield loss. Buyers who relied on São Paulo winter potatoes will need more volume from Minas Gerais, Bahia or other regions.
Photo: A potato plantation in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, historical photograph (illustrative). Museu Paulista da USP / Wikimedia Commons, public domain
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What next
The September LSPA will revise state figures again. The winter harvest is still under way in the Southeast. It is not yet clear whether São Paulo growers will return to their usual area next season.
Sources
- IBGE SIDRA — tabela 6588, LSPA por UF (batata-inglesa 2ª e 3ª safra) — https://apisidra.ibge.gov.br/values/t/6588/n3/all/v/35,109/p/202512,202608/c48/39451,39452
- IBGE — LSPA agosto 2026, Indicadores (PDF) — https://ftp.ibge.gov.br/Producao_Agricola/Levantamento_Sistematico_da_Producao_Agricola_mensal/Fasciculo_Indicadores_IBGE/2026/estProdAgri_202608.pdf
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