Brazil: rain keeps potato harvest stop-start as wholesale prices rise for a third week
Wet weather in Brazil’s south-east once again disrupted potato lifting between 7 and 11 September, pushing wholesale prices higher for the third consecutive week. The latest gains were far smaller than the previous week’s surge, however, and uneven across markets: prices in São Paulo were virtually flat, while Rio de Janeiro recorded the steepest rise.
Wholesale prices
According to the weekly survey by Hortifrúti/Cepea, the horticultural market research team at the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (University of São Paulo, ESALQ campus), average prices for top-grade (especial) Ágata potatoes were as follows:
| Wholesale market | 31 Aug–4 Sep (BRL/25 kg bag) | 7–11 Sep (BRL/25 kg bag) | Weekly change* | Per kg* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Paulo | 98.00 | 98.42 | +0.4% | ≈ BRL 3.94 |
| Belo Horizonte | 91.12 | 94.72 | +4.0% | ≈ BRL 3.79 |
| Rio de Janeiro | 99.64 | 107.50 | +7.9% | ≈ BRL 4.30 |
*Calculated by the editors from Cepea’s weekly averages. Some secondary reports of the same data give weekly changes that do not match the published prices; the figures above are derived directly from the price series.
Weekdays. Unsubscribe in one click.
A week of two halves
Drier conditions early in the week allowed harvesting to pick up, and prices held broadly steady until Wednesday 9 September. Heavier rain returned on Thursday and Friday across several growing areas, making fields difficult to access and cutting deliveries to wholesale markets. The sharpest price increases came on Friday.
Conditions varied by region. In south-western São Paulo state, rain on Wednesday and Thursday halted lifting altogether. In Vargem Grande do Sul, one of the state’s main potato-producing districts, some harvesting went ahead on Thursday, but saturated soils slowed progress considerably.
Brazilian market analysts describe this pattern as a mercado de chuva, or “rain market”: prices are driven not by a shortfall in the crop itself but by temporary interruptions to harvesting, which tighten supply for a few days at a time and can reverse just as quickly.
Three weeks in context
The week before, from 31 August to 4 September, prices jumped by 46.2% in São Paulo, 39.8% in Belo Horizonte and 28.9% in Rio de Janeiro after rain in Vargem Grande do Sul and southern Minas Gerais disrupted harvesting from 1 September. Cepea reported that tuber quality nonetheless remained generally good.
On the editors’ calculations, prices have risen by roughly 47% in São Paulo, 45% in Belo Horizonte and 39% in Rio de Janeiro over the past two weeks. Measured against early August (3–7 August), when intensive harvesting of the winter crop weighed on the market and averages stood at BRL 60.98 in São Paulo, BRL 59.03 in Belo Horizonte and BRL 55.85 in Rio de Janeiro, current levels are around 61%, 60% and 92% higher respectively.
The rally is unfolding at the height of the safra das secas, Brazil’s dry-season (winter) crop, when volumes in the field are ample. That leaves prices highly sensitive to the weather rather than to underlying availability. Late July offered a reminder: a brief rain-driven rise in southern Minas Gerais and Vargem Grande do Sul faded as soon as drier conditions returned.
Outlook
Cepea expects further rain in the coming week to keep restricting harvesting, which should support prices in the short term. A potential counterweight is Cristalina in Goiás state, where the harvest is expected to peak in September, with around 80% of the crop marketed by the end of the month. For now, the weather in the south-eastern growing regions remains the decisive factor for price direction.
Source: Hortifrúti/Cepea (ESALQ/USP). Calculations by the editors.
