Brazil: Consumer Potato Prices Rise 3.1% in September After Two Monthly Falls
Key takeaways
- 3.10% rise in consumer potato prices in September IPCA-15
- 25.14% fall in August and 10.03% in July came first
- 46.96% increase in potato prices over the last 12 months
- 0.70% monthly rise in the full index, 4.47% over 12 months
Why it matters
- For farmers
- Use the September price turn to time sales of winter potatoes; avoid dumping volume while retail prices recover.
- For processors
- Review retail prices for fries and chips: fresh potato prices are up 46.96% in a year and raw material stays costly.
- For traders
- Watch the next IPCA releases: a second monthly rise would confirm that the summer price fall has ended.
60-second summary
After a steep summer correction, what Brazilian households pay for potatoes has started to climb again. The mid-month consumer index for September shows a gain of just over 3 percent for this item, following declines of about 10 percent in July and 25 percent in August. Even after that slide, a kilo costs far more than a year ago: the twelve-month increase is close to 47 percent, roughly ten times the pace of overall inflation of about 4.5 percent. Earlier spikes of 26 and 29 percent in May and June explain most of the gap. Behind the prices lies a smaller harvest, estimated at 4.2 million tonnes for 2026 after growers reduced planted land. Retailers, restaurants and processors setting prices for fresh and frozen products should treat the September move as a possible turning point. Still, one monthly reading is not a trend, and the next full index will show whether the rebound holds as winter digging winds down.
Consumer potato prices in Brazil turned up again in September. The potato item of the IPCA-15 index rose 3.10% in the month. The national statistics agency IBGE compiles the index.
The rise follows two months of sharp falls. Prices fell 10.03% in July and 25.14% in August.
Still far above last year
The summer decline did not erase earlier gains. Potato prices rose 26.29% in May and 29.42% in June. In April they rose 4.53%.
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As a result, potato prices are up 39.01% since the start of 2026. Over 12 months they are up 46.96%.
General inflation is much lower. The full IPCA-15 index rose 0.70% in September. It is up 4.47% over 12 months.
The wider group of tubers, roots and legumes rose 4.66% in September. Sweet potato prices fell 1.46%.
Potatoes have a weight of 0.1855% in the September index. The IPCA-15 covers prices collected from mid-August to mid-September.
The spring rally was the main source of the annual increase. In May and June alone, potato prices rose by more than a quarter each month. The falls of July and August removed only part of that gain.
Smaller crop in the background
Supply is lower this year. IBGE expects 4.20 million tonnes of potatoes in 2026, down 8.2%. The winter crop, now on the market, is estimated at 893,762 tonnes, down 19.1%.
Planted area is the main reason for the smaller crop. Growers planted 9.2% less land than in 2025, according to IBGE data. The area of the winter crop fell 23.7%.
Why it matters
A price rise of almost 47% in a year is large for a basic food. It affects household budgets and restaurant menus. It also sets the reference for retail promotions of fresh and processed potatoes.
The September turn suggests that the price fall of July and August may be over. The next IPCA and IPCA-15 releases will show whether the rise continues as the winter harvest ends.
Photo: A street food market in Saúde, São Paulo, Brazil (illustrative). Wilfredor / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
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What next
The full September IPCA and the October IPCA-15 come next. They will show whether potato prices keep rising as the winter harvest ends. The crop estimate may also change in the next LSPA.
Sources
- IBGE SIDRA — IPCA-15, tabela 7062 (subitem batata-inglesa) — https://apisidra.ibge.gov.br/values/t/7062/n1/all/v/all/p/202604,202605,202606,202607,202608,202609/c315/7169,7200,7202
- IBGE — LSPA agosto 2026, Indicadores (PDF) — https://ftp.ibge.gov.br/Producao_Agricola/Levantamento_Sistematico_da_Producao_Agricola_mensal/Fasciculo_Indicadores_IBGE/2026/estProdAgri_202608.pdf
- ОДИН ИСТОЧНИК
Linked in this material
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- Brazil
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