Canada: Frozen Fry Shipments to the US Slip 1.5% to 1.119 Million Tonnes as Sales to Mexico and the Gulf Jump
Key takeaways
- 1.119 million tonnes of Canadian frozen fries went to the US in the year to July
- 1.5% is the drop in shipments to the US
- 83.6% is the US share of exports, down from 87.0% two years ago
- 40% plus is the growth in sales to Mexico and some Gulf states
Why it matters
- For processors
- Expect stronger Canadian competition in Mexico and the Gulf at prices close to EU levels.
- For traders
- Canadian fries at EU-like prices may win tenders in the Gulf and Latin America.
60-second summary
Canada is slowly spreading its frozen fry exports beyond the United States. According to World Potato Markets, shipments to the US fell by one and a half percent to about one point one two million tonnes in the year to the end of July. The US still takes almost eighty-four percent of Canadian exports, but two years ago the share was eighty-seven percent. In the same period, sales to Mexico and several Gulf states rose by more than forty percent. The report says lower Canadian prices, now similar to European levels, help this push. It links the shift to tense trade relations between Ottawa and Washington, although potatoes and potato products are exempt from the new US duties under an existing agreement. The change is still small, but it adds competition for European, Indian and Chinese suppliers in growing markets such as Mexico and the Gulf.
Canada is slowly shifting its frozen fry exports away from the United States. Shipments to the US fell by 1.5% to 1.119 million tonnes in the year to the end of July. This comes from World Potato Markets, issue 784 of 8 September 2026.
The US still takes 83.6% of Canadian frozen fry exports. Two years ago the share was 87.0%. Over the same period, sales to Mexico and some Gulf states rose by more than 40%.
Prices help the push
World Potato Markets says lower Canadian prices support the search for new markets. Canadian prices are now similar to those in the EU.
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The report calls the change “not dramatic yet, but detectable”. It links the shift to strained trade relations between Ottawa and Washington. Potatoes and potato products are exempt from the new US duties, as an existing agreement covers them. Companies from both countries operate on both sides of the border.
Why it matters
Canada is the largest supplier of frozen fries to the US. A small shift in its trade changes the balance for processors in North America, Europe and Asia. More Canadian fries in Mexico and the Gulf mean more competition there for European, Indian and Chinese exporters.
Source: World Potato Markets 784, 8 September 2026 (Supply Intelligence Ltd). Figures are taken from the publisher’s summary; they were not checked against Statistics Canada.
Photo: A portion of French fries (illustrative). stu_spivack / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.0
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What next
Watch monthly Canadian trade data for further growth outside the US. Competition with EU, Indian and Chinese fries in Mexico and the Gulf may increase.
Sources
- World Potato Markets 784, 8 September 2026 (Supply Intelligence Ltd), e-mail summary
Linked in this material
- Country
- Canada
- Companies
- World Potato Markets
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