The Dutch potato market is sending clear signals of correction for the 2024/2025 season. According to the Association of Arable Farmers (Verenigde Telers Akkerbouw, VTA), the market remains fundamentally unbalanced, leading to sustained low prices for processing potatoes, particularly for french fry production. While common varieties struggle, specific cultivars like Innovator, Agria, and Markies continue to command better premiums, highlighting a growing processor focus on quality and contract reliability over spot market volumes. The industry’s pivot is evident: processors are securing their core needs through contracts, while non-contract surpluses are increasingly diverted to the animal feed channel.
The most pressing data point from the VTA is the anticipated decline in contract prices for the upcoming planting season. Early (“afland”) potatoes are projected to see contracts drop by approximately 20%, with ware potatoes for storage facing a decrease of around 10%. This disparity is rooted in current economics. High carry-over stocks in storage facilities allow processors to extend the processing season, diminishing the urgency and premium for new early potatoes. Furthermore, the early segment, having seen the steepest price increases in recent years, presents the easiest target for cost-cutting as it involves no associated storage costs for buyers. This trend is not isolated. Recent data from Agrico’s annual financial review and reports from the North-Western European Potato Growers (NEPG) align, indicating an EU-wide effort to reduce planted area by 3-5% to counteract oversupply and low prices seen in the 2023 harvest. The spot market, as noted, remains stagnant, with only minor adjustments for specific varieties across Northwestern Europe.
The upcoming season demands a proactive and strategic response from growers. The anticipated double-digit percentage drops in contract prices are a direct market signal to reduce supply. The VTA’s recommendation to intentionally reduce planted acreage is a painful but necessary strategy to restore long-term market balance and price viability. Success will hinge on meticulous cost management, a strategic shift towards processor-preferred, higher-value varieties, and careful negotiation based on the distinct dynamics of early versus storage potato contracts. Clarity from processors on contract offers will be crucial to enable these informed business decisions, including those on land rental, before the planting window closes.
