In practice, there are no indications that arable farmers are opting on a large scale for a smaller potato area in 2021.
The North-Western European Potato Growers (NEPG) recently called on potato growers in Europe to plant 15 percent fewer potatoes. The question now is to what extent growers are following this advice. In the Netherlands there is a tendency for the potato acreage to shrink slightly and for arable farmers to temporarily opt for more wheat in their crop plan. LTO director Hendrik Jan ten Cate assumes that NEPG’s plea for area shrinkage is mainly aimed at free potatoes. Growing for the free market is, according to him, a difficult business, due to the uncertain sales of potatoes. ‘But on the other hand, processors will simply need potatoes again next year.’
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Ten Cate emphasizes that each grower will consider the acreage to be planted for himself. ‘A free grower who now gets nothing for his product will think three times to run that risk again. The cost prices are too high for that. It is currently very important that as a grower you can cover your fixed costs through good agreements with your customer. That ultimately determines the acreage. ‘
Less chips potatoes
In practice, the business advisers Jan Lucas Spijkman and Egbert Bakker of accountants firm Countus have noticed that some growers of chips potatoes are considering planting less acreage for the coming season. Spijkman also assumes that these growers will sow more grains for a year instead of potatoes. ‘They immediately do something about soil improvement. I do not see entire building plans being overturned, that is far too drastic. Moreover, potatoes and onions remain the crops on which most arable farms run, ‘says Spijkman.
Bakker speaks of a few arable farmers who plant fewer potatoes for his Flevoland work area. ‘It is not currently visible on a large scale, nor does it give a representative picture. Growers who doubt whether they have sufficient options to cover their risks will be particularly inclined to take a smaller potato area. ‘
‘Canceling the rental country is not likely’
The Countus business advisor doubts whether arable farmers will cancel a year of rental land due to fewer potatoes. ‘The rental plots are too scarce for that. In addition, in terms of investments in machinery and storage facilities, companies are set up for a specific potato area. A temporary switch to an alternative crop is then not an obvious choice. But with the pressure on margins, a choice will have to be made.
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CZAV sales manager Bram de Visser also sees a trend towards less potatoes and more wheat in the southwest. But he cannot substantiate that with figures yet. ‘We have the impression that an extra block of wheat is being sown here and there. More sowing seed is also sold, but that also has to do with the emergence of digging and sowing in one pass. That requires 10 percent more seed. ‘ According to De Visser, many arable farmers are delaying the plans for their cropping plan. ‘The harvest is far from over in our region. The arable farmers have something else on their mind, but they also want to see the cat out of the tree. ‘
Alternatives
Potato growers on the sandy soils in Southeast Netherlands are certainly looking for alternatives, is the impression of Delphy’s cultivation advisor Stefan Michiels. ‘We now mainly have to wait and see what will happen with the contracts. On the sand, it is not surprising that arable farmers only finalize their crop plan in the spring. ‘According to Michiels, many potato growers are calculating. ‘Everything depends on sales. Growers realize that another year without earnings is not an option. ‘ In addition to grains, the cultivation advisor also expects an expansion of onion cultivation in his work area.
