Due to significant rises in input costs, fertilizer, and fuel predominantly, but also because of rainfall lack that’s becoming a growing issue, European countries, the US, and Canada are facing serious reductions in potato planting areas for 2022.
For example, maincrop varieties in the UK are now beginning to show the effects of the recent extremely high temperatures, and soil moisture deficit levels that are increasing by the day.
“High evaporation levels have reduced the amount of water available to the crop and programs are rapidly falling behind. Partial irrigation bans are reported in the Fens. Crops without irrigation are suffering badly and a high proportion of these are grown for the processing sector,” IFA’s potato experts wrote.
Irish home consumption and retail sales have taken a hit over the past week due to soaring temperatures. Sales took a hit recently, but the cooler temperatures forecast should improve this. Crops are very dry due to the high temperatures and lack of moisture, hence forecasted rain for the weekend will be very welcome.
The Smallest US Potato Planted Area Since 1954
According to UPGC potato area planting estimates on June 30, 2022, the US potato seeding reached 13,354 ha or 3.5% less than a year ago, the bulk of the acreage (10,117 hectares) coming out of Idaho. Based on the USDA reported area above, this would be the smallest US planted acreage since 1954.
“Idaho Acreage is estimated to be down 10,117 ha below 2021, lower than even 2020 levels in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. A large amount of the cuts are coming from seed acreage as well as very high input costs and water issues turning growers to alternative crops with better, more stable, pricing at the time of planting,” the UPGC experts reported.
Also, some of the acreage reduction in Idaho is because the fryers were hesitant to provide a good contract and sign up enough hectares, figuring extra areas would get planted anyway but they did not take into consideration the increases in the cost of production causing most growers to tighten up acreage.
Washington area is estimated to be up 2,023 ha or 3.1% over the 2021 crop to date, “not surprising” according to analysts, since it is a state with most of its crop destined for processing where demand continues to be strong, both domestically and for export markets. Cold weather at the start of the season delayed growth however recent mild weather is giving the plants a chance to catch up.
Overall Outlook for the US
Even though food service has resumed operations since the COVID-19 pandemic, it has not recovered completely, and many are concerned about the next six months, which will see record-high inflation and some decline in customer traffic. While frozen fries exports are increasing in volume, the US continues to lag behind other countries in terms of global market share. Some of this is also because they ran out of product to export last year.
“These factors, combined with sharp inclines in fuel, fertilizer, and other related input costs, cast some uncertainty over the potato industry moving forward and have put a damper on acreage expansion plans, at least for this year as seen in the figures above,” UPGC experts declared.
Drought and heat stress in western US states, combined with very late planting in the upper mid-west and some eastern states, are causing concerns about overall yields for the 2022 crop.
With current shortages of old crop and delays and lower yields on new crops, the higher pricing is seen in the market currently may continue. In contrast to the negative reports, many states are now seeing ideal growing conditions and are becoming more confident that plants are catching up in growth and won’t be caught by sudden high temperatures as seen in 2021.
Two Reasons Behind the Reduced Canadian Potato Seeding
Due to significant rises in input costs, fertilizer, and fuel predominantly, coupled with increased holding levels in some of the Eastern Canadian provinces, the United Potato Growers of Canada (UPGC) have seen reduced potato seeded area in 2022.
Statistics Canada released their first estimate of the total potato area in Canada from data obtained from their survey of tuber growers in the country. The 2022 spud area is estimated at 155,855 hectares. This is almost flat compared to 2021, only 97,9 hectares more than last year.
The largest decrease in acreage in 2022 was not surprisingly found in Prince Edward Island (PEI), a reduction of 2,225 ha, a drop of 6.4%. With seed movement to other provinces still blocked by CFIA and greatly increased production costs, many farmers either moved to other crops where pricing and demand were more certain, or were simply unable, or unwilling, to plant in 2022.
There were other decreases more significant in percentage, but not in actual hectares, as the PEI decreased, namely a 33.4% drop in Nova Scotia equaling 161 ha; a decrease of only 10 ha in Newfoundland but that was an 8% decline in this region, and BC saw their seeded acres go down by 202 ha equating to a 7.7% drop over 2021.
“If we look at the data back to 2016, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland have been in a slight but steady decline, but BC has remained fairly steady with their decrease this year more related to heavy rains and cold temperatures during planting. With the added pressures of steep increases in costs this year and variable weather with climate change, and even generational changeovers, the reductions in these areas with smaller overall acreage may not be surprising, and do not have a large impact on the overall production of potatoes in Canada,” the UPGC experts declared.
Acreage in Saskatchewan, Ontario, and New Brunswick all saw slight decreases in overall acreage compared to 2021, but were all still higher or at least equal to 2020 levels during COVID-19 and still well in line with levels going back to 2016.
“It is important to note that the acreage levels in the 2022 Canadian Potato Crop are not unexpected due to the current challenges in the industry including the sharp inclines in cost of production and the availability and cost of freight, and are reflected in areas that did have higher holdings from last season’s good crop,” they concluded.
A source: https://www.potatobusiness.com
