As Ukraine’s potato harvest begins, experts reveal that the true cost of this staple is less about field yields and more about fuel, transportation, and storage expenses. This analysis breaks down the current price floor and forecasts the market trajectory through the season, highlighting critical pressures every producer and distributor should understand.
The economic landscape for Ukraine’s 2025 potato season is being defined by factors far beyond the field. According to Oleg Pendzin, Director of the Economic Discussion Club, the average price for potatoes in early September has settled at UAH 17/kg. However, this figure is merely a starting point, with a complex interplay of logistics and post-harvest costs poised to dictate market movements in the coming months. Pendzin emphasizes that the high cost of petroleum products is a primary driver, making transportation a significant component of the final price paid by consumers.
This logistical burden creates a stark price differential. Consumers can find potatoes for UAH 12-13/kg by purchasing directly from farm gates in villages, bypassing retail markups. In contrast, supermarket prices are nearly double, sitting at around UAH 34/kg. This disparity underscores the massive cost added by the supply chain. With the mass harvest underway, Pendzin predicts a market price stabilization at UAH 14-15/kg, noting that prices are unlikely to fall further.
A critical shift is expected in the second half of October. Pendzin forecasts a gradual price increase from that point onward, attributing it directly to the costs of storage. Energy for climate-controlled facilities, ventilation, and managing weight loss during storage all contribute to a rising cost base that is inevitably passed on to the consumer through retail channels.
This situation in Ukraine reflects a broader global trend. A 2024 report by the International Potato Center (CIP) highlighted that in many developing economies, post-harvest losses and supply chain inefficiencies can account for 30-50% of the total cost of produce, often outweighing the actual cost of production. Furthermore, the FAO’s 2023 report on food logistics stressed that volatile global energy prices remain the single largest uncertainty for perishable food distribution networks worldwide, directly impacting the affordability of staples like potatoes.
For farmers, agronomists, and supply chain managers in Ukraine, the 2025 season presents a clear challenge and opportunity. While production efficiency remains vital, the greatest financial leverage may now lie in managing the post-harvest pipeline. Investing in energy-efficient storage solutions, optimizing logistics to reduce fuel consumption, and developing direct-to-consumer sales channels are no longer ancillary strategies—they are central to maintaining profitability and market competitiveness. Understanding that the potato’s journey from field to shelf is as important as its growth in the field is key to navigating the current economic climate.
