Europe’s frozen potato market—comprised primarily of par-fried fries and other frozen preparations—is projected to experience continued growth over the coming decade, driven by increased consumption, intra-bloc trade, and escalating prices. According to IndexBox’s comprehensive market report, published in October 2024, EU consumption of frozen potatoes reached approximately 3.4 million tons in 2024, valued at $4.1 billion, marking a significant milestone in market development.
By 2035, it is anticipated that consumption volumes will rise to roughly 3.7 million tons, accompanied by a corresponding increase in market value to $5.2 billion. This trajectory underscores the resilience and adaptability of the frozen potato sector amid global economic uncertainties.
However, this growth comes with caveats. While overall consumption and market value are set to expand, the pace of growth is predicted to slow slightly. From 2024 to 2035, market volume is expected to grow annually at just 0.6%, contrasting sharply with historical figures. Conversely, market value is forecast to grow more vigorously at 2.1% per year, largely due to higher prices and changes in product composition.
Notably, Romania emerges as one of the brightest stars in this evolving landscape. Despite being smaller in scale compared to established players like Germany, France, and the Netherlands, Romania boasts the fastest growth rates in both consumption volume (12.0% CAGR) and market value (16.2% CAGR) from 2013 to 2024. Additionally, Romanian imports of frozen potatoes experienced substantial gains, growing by 12.1% annually during the same period.
From a production standpoint, Belgium and the Netherlands lead the way, collectively producing nearly 84% of all frozen potatoes in the EU. These two nations, along with Germany, contributed significantly to the overall output of 5.7 million tons in 2024. However, French production saw the strongest growth rate at 7.5% annually between 2013 and 2024.
Prices play a pivotal role in shaping the future outlook. Average import prices for frozen potatoes jumped to $1,503 per ton in 2024—a remarkable 3.7% increase from the prior year. Similarly, export prices spiked to $1,492 per ton, reflecting a staggering 4.3% yearly gain and highlighting the sustained inflationary pressures impacting the industry.
These findings underline the complex interplay between consumption patterns, trade dynamics, and price fluctuations. As we move toward 2035, farmers, processors, and marketers must navigate these shifts strategically to capitalize on emerging opportunities.
Despite slower growth rates, the EU’s frozen potato market presents promising opportunities for agribusiness professionals. By leveraging regional strengths, fostering innovation, and responding proactively to changing consumer preferences, stakeholders can position themselves advantageously in this vibrant yet challenging marketplace.
