The European potato market is bracing for a challenging year as new data from Expana forecasts a significant drop in potato harvests across the continent. According to the latest analysis, the European potato harvest in 2024 is expected to reach only 20.7 million tonnes, an 8.8% decline from the 2023 yield. This decrease in production is primarily attributed to adverse weather conditions and a rise in disease prevalence across key potato-growing regions, particularly in Northwest Europe.
Weather and Disease Affect Potato Yields Across Europe
Despite an anticipated 4-6% year-over-year increase in potato hectarage for 2024, unfavorable conditions have hindered growth and yields. The NEPG (North-Western European Potato Growers) region, which includes major potato producers like Belgium, the Netherlands, France, and Germany, has been particularly affected by wet weather during the planting season. As a result, the EU Commission’s August yield forecast for 2024 stands at 35.1 tonnes per hectare, down 4.6% from the previous year’s yield of 36.8 tonnes per hectare. This projection is also 1% below the five-year average.
The effects of the poor weather are most pronounced in Belgium and the Netherlands, where yields are expected to decline by 11% and 6% year-over-year, respectively. France and Germany have also been impacted, with yield forecasts down by 4% and 2%, respectively, compared to 2023.
Southern Europe Shows Resilience
While Northern and Western Europe are facing significant challenges, Southern European countries like Spain and Portugal have fared better, thanks to effective irrigation systems that have mitigated the effects of high temperatures. Reports from the region suggest that potato crops remain in average condition, with improved availability expected throughout the 2024–2025 marketing year (MY). The typically dry harvest conditions in these regions have also contributed to better-shaped and more storable potatoes, in contrast to those gathered under wet conditions in 2023.
Market Outlook for 2024–2025
Despite the projected decline in overall production, market players remain cautiously optimistic about potato availability for the upcoming market year. The combination of better-quality potatoes and more favorable harvest conditions in some regions could help balance the lower production volumes. However, the challenges faced by Northern and Western Europe highlight the increasing vulnerability of potato crops to weather extremes and disease outbreaks.
The EU Commission’s forecast underscores the need for continued investment in agricultural innovation and climate resilience. Farmers in affected regions may need to adopt new strategies for disease management and crop protection, as well as explore more robust and adaptable potato varieties to mitigate future risks.
The European potato industry faces a difficult year ahead, with an 8.8% decline in the 2024 harvest due to challenging weather and disease conditions. While some regions like Spain and Portugal are expected to produce better-quality potatoes, the overall production decrease underscores the growing impact of climate change on European agriculture. Moving forward, enhancing resilience through innovation and adaptive practices will be key to sustaining productivity in the face of these challenges.
