Recent data from the Dutch Potato Organization (NAO) reveals a worrying trend: international buyers are turning away from Dutch potatoes, exacerbating an already difficult market situation. In May 2024, only 55,000 tons of Dutch table and processing potatoes were exported—10,000 tons less than in May 2023 and a staggering 42,000 tons below May 2022 levels (NAO, 2024).
Key Market Shifts
- EU Demand Halved
- Exports to the EU fell to 49,000 tons in May 2024, down from 97,000 tons in May 2023.
- Belgium remains the largest buyer (39,000 tons), but overall EU purchases dropped by 110,000 tons this season.
- France and Italy slightly increased imports, but Germany and Eastern European markets reduced orders significantly.
- Global Buyers Hesitant
- Outside the EU, exports totaled just 16,500 tons, spread across 40 countries.
- Africa imported less than 2,800 tons, a fraction of historical levels (previously up to 15,000 tons in May).
- Central/South America bought 3,400 tons, distributed across 10 countries in small quantities.
- Price Sensitivity
- Lower prices failed to stimulate demand in Africa and Asia, suggesting structural market shifts rather than temporary fluctuations.
Why the Decline?
- Oversupply in Europe: Increased potato production in Germany, France, and Poland has reduced reliance on Dutch imports.
- Logistics & Costs: Rising transport expenses and competition from cheaper regional suppliers (e.g., Eastern Europe) make Dutch potatoes less attractive.
- Consumer Trends: Demand for processed potatoes (fries, chips) is stable, but fresh potato consumption is falling in Western Europe (-3% annually since 2020, FAO).
What Can Farmers Do?
- Diversify Markets: Explore opportunities in Asia (e.g., Vietnam, Indonesia), where demand for processed potatoes is growing (+8% CAGR, Rabobank 2024).
- Shift to Premium Varieties: Focus on high-yield, disease-resistant cultivars (e.g., Innovator, Fontane) for processing to meet industry needs.
- Improve Storage & Logistics: Reduce waste and costs by adopting smart storage tech (e.g., AI-controlled climate storage).
The Dutch potato sector must adapt to shrinking EU demand by targeting emerging markets, optimizing supply chains, and aligning production with global trends. While Belgium remains a critical buyer, long-term stability will require innovation and diversification.
