Until corona came into our lives, ware potato growers were very satisfied. The consumption of (French fries) potatoes increased every year, which resulted in an increasingly better potato price. Of course, this involved a small annual increase in acreage, but the market was able to cope with that. If the kg yield was a bit lower, this was usually compensated by a better price. In short: why not be satisfied if you earn money every year with potatoes?
Это было так предсказуемо
It was also true that in the course of August and September you could reasonably predict what the price would be. That is the period in which it becomes clear what the kg yield in Western Europe is about to be. Consumption has also been reasonably predictable for years, so if you roughly know the kg yield, you also know whether the market is back in balance.
On the basis of the above, the futures market also often responded. This means that until mid-May the futures market fluctuated around € 0.15 per kg and could increase in the summer due to the weather forecast. Especially with a prediction of dry and warm weather, the price could then rise to well above € 0.20 per kg. In the course of August and September, the futures market then chooses direction based on the expected kg yield.
The impact of corona
However, now this is all different, because we are dealing with the corona virus. The futures market is now around € 0.18 per kg and is therefore extremely high for the beginning of May. You don’t usually see many mood effects in the futures market during this time. At the moment there are 2 factors that do give mood. The expected shrinkage in area and the expectation that we will eat fries again en masse next year.
And now?
It is impossible for anyone to determine whether the € 0.18 per kg is justified because of the aforementioned factors. We will soon know whether the acreage has indeed decreased significantly and we will be able to draw conclusions. Keep in mind that the price may still have influenced the acreage, especially since it has been so high for a number of weeks. There is enough seed material, so the potato growers can still decide to plant extra acreage. The question is whether they have extra land to plant potatoes.
The corona factor on the consumption of chips is much more uncertain and we will not actually know until next June whether the potatoes that will grow next summer are all needed for chips.
A great price
We would like to give you one more point. The high price is usually the result of a lower yield. You therefore need a good price to make up for all the costs. Now the price is high, while partly due to the good structure, the kg yield is expected to be fine.
In short: realize that € 0.18 per kg is a very good price for French fries potatoes and that corona makes it very difficult to predict what the price will be. With this price you can earn a living as a potato grower, even if the kg yield is disappointing due to, for example, warm and dry weather.
Knowing more?
Would you like to know more about potato prices? Or would you like to discuss your specific situation? Then contact a Countus advisor.
The corona outbreak has created great pressure on the potato market. As a result of these developments, we hear that certain buyers do not want to buy potatoes or less. The reason for this is that these buyers fear that they have no destination for it. What can you do as a potato seller? To what extent is the buyer obliged to purchase the potatoes? Follow this step-by-step plan:
